A Bayesian Outbreak Detection Method for Influenza-Like Illness.
Identifieur interne : 000194 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000193; suivant : 000195A Bayesian Outbreak Detection Method for Influenza-Like Illness.
Auteurs : Yury E. García [Mexique] ; J Andrés Christen [Mexique] ; Marcos A. Capistrán [Mexique]Source :
- BioMed research international [ 2314-6141 ] ; 2015.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- statistiques et données numériques : Épidémies de maladies.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine, San Francisco.
- Densité de population, Espagne, Humains, Modèles statistiques, Statistiques comme sujet, Théorème de Bayes.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : San Francisco.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- statistics & numerical data : Disease Outbreaks.
- Bayes Theorem, Humans, Models, Statistical, Population Density, Spain, Statistics as Topic.
Abstract
Epidemic outbreak detection is an important problem in public health and the development of reliable methods for outbreak detection remains an active research area. In this paper we introduce a Bayesian method to detect outbreaks of influenza-like illness from surveillance data. The rationale is that, during the early phase of the outbreak, surveillance data changes from autoregressive dynamics to a regime of exponential growth. Our method uses Bayesian model selection and Bayesian regression to identify the breakpoint. No free parameters need to be tuned. However, historical information regarding influenza-like illnesses needs to be incorporated into the model. In order to show and discuss the performance of our method we analyze synthetic, seasonal, and pandemic outbreak data.
DOI: 10.1155/2015/751738
PubMed: 26425552
PubMed Central: PMC4575748
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">A Bayesian Outbreak Detection Method for Influenza-Like Illness.</title><author><name sortKey="Garcia, Yury E" sort="Garcia, Yury E" uniqKey="Garcia Y" first="Yury E" last="García">Yury E. García</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas, A.C., Jalisco S/N, Colonia Valenciana, 36240 Guanajuato, GTO, Mexico.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Mexique</country><wicri:regionArea>Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas, A.C., Jalisco S/N, Colonia Valenciana, 36240 Guanajuato, GTO</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>GTO</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Christen, J Andres" sort="Christen, J Andres" uniqKey="Christen J" first="J Andrés" last="Christen">J Andrés Christen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas, A.C., Jalisco S/N, Colonia Valenciana, 36240 Guanajuato, GTO, Mexico.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Mexique</country><wicri:regionArea>Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas, A.C., Jalisco S/N, Colonia Valenciana, 36240 Guanajuato, GTO</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>GTO</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Capistran, Marcos A" sort="Capistran, Marcos A" uniqKey="Capistran M" first="Marcos A" last="Capistrán">Marcos A. Capistrán</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas, A.C., Jalisco S/N, Colonia Valenciana, 36240 Guanajuato, GTO, Mexico.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Mexique</country><wicri:regionArea>Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas, A.C., Jalisco S/N, Colonia Valenciana, 36240 Guanajuato, GTO</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>GTO</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2015">2015</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:26425552</idno><idno type="pmid">26425552</idno><idno type="doi">10.1155/2015/751738</idno><idno type="pmc">PMC4575748</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">00160</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">00160</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000160</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Curation">000160</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000160</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">A Bayesian Outbreak Detection Method for Influenza-Like Illness.</title><author><name sortKey="Garcia, Yury E" sort="Garcia, Yury E" uniqKey="Garcia Y" first="Yury E" last="García">Yury E. García</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas, A.C., Jalisco S/N, Colonia Valenciana, 36240 Guanajuato, GTO, Mexico.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Mexique</country><wicri:regionArea>Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas, A.C., Jalisco S/N, Colonia Valenciana, 36240 Guanajuato, GTO</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>GTO</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Christen, J Andres" sort="Christen, J Andres" uniqKey="Christen J" first="J Andrés" last="Christen">J Andrés Christen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas, A.C., Jalisco S/N, Colonia Valenciana, 36240 Guanajuato, GTO, Mexico.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Mexique</country><wicri:regionArea>Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas, A.C., Jalisco S/N, Colonia Valenciana, 36240 Guanajuato, GTO</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>GTO</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Capistran, Marcos A" sort="Capistran, Marcos A" uniqKey="Capistran M" first="Marcos A" last="Capistrán">Marcos A. Capistrán</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas, A.C., Jalisco S/N, Colonia Valenciana, 36240 Guanajuato, GTO, Mexico.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Mexique</country><wicri:regionArea>Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas, A.C., Jalisco S/N, Colonia Valenciana, 36240 Guanajuato, GTO</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>GTO</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">BioMed research international</title><idno type="eISSN">2314-6141</idno><imprint><date when="2015" type="published">2015</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Bayes Theorem (MeSH)</term><term>Disease Outbreaks (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Humans (MeSH)</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Models, Statistical (MeSH)</term><term>Population Density (MeSH)</term><term>San Francisco (epidemiology)</term><term>Spain (MeSH)</term><term>Statistics as Topic (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Densité de population (MeSH)</term><term>Espagne (MeSH)</term><term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Humains (MeSH)</term><term>Modèles statistiques (MeSH)</term><term>San Francisco (épidémiologie)</term><term>Statistiques comme sujet (MeSH)</term><term>Théorème de Bayes (MeSH)</term><term>Épidémies de maladies (statistiques et données numériques)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>San Francisco</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Outbreaks</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistiques et données numériques" xml:lang="fr"><term>Épidémies de maladies</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>San Francisco</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Bayes Theorem</term><term>Humans</term><term>Models, Statistical</term><term>Population Density</term><term>Spain</term><term>Statistics as Topic</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Densité de population</term><term>Espagne</term><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles statistiques</term><term>Statistiques comme sujet</term><term>Théorème de Bayes</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Epidemic outbreak detection is an important problem in public health and the development of reliable methods for outbreak detection remains an active research area. In this paper we introduce a Bayesian method to detect outbreaks of influenza-like illness from surveillance data. The rationale is that, during the early phase of the outbreak, surveillance data changes from autoregressive dynamics to a regime of exponential growth. Our method uses Bayesian model selection and Bayesian regression to identify the breakpoint. No free parameters need to be tuned. However, historical information regarding influenza-like illnesses needs to be incorporated into the model. In order to show and discuss the performance of our method we analyze synthetic, seasonal, and pandemic outbreak data.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">26425552</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2016</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>11</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2018</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>13</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2314-6141</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>2015</Volume><PubDate><Year>2015</Year></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>BioMed research international</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Biomed Res Int</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>A Bayesian Outbreak Detection Method for Influenza-Like Illness.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>751738</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1155/2015/751738</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Epidemic outbreak detection is an important problem in public health and the development of reliable methods for outbreak detection remains an active research area. In this paper we introduce a Bayesian method to detect outbreaks of influenza-like illness from surveillance data. The rationale is that, during the early phase of the outbreak, surveillance data changes from autoregressive dynamics to a regime of exponential growth. Our method uses Bayesian model selection and Bayesian regression to identify the breakpoint. No free parameters need to be tuned. However, historical information regarding influenza-like illnesses needs to be incorporated into the model. In order to show and discuss the performance of our method we analyze synthetic, seasonal, and pandemic outbreak data.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>García</LastName><ForeName>Yury E</ForeName><Initials>YE</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas, A.C., Jalisco S/N, Colonia Valenciana, 36240 Guanajuato, GTO, Mexico.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Christen</LastName><ForeName>J Andrés</ForeName><Initials>JA</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas, A.C., Jalisco S/N, Colonia Valenciana, 36240 Guanajuato, GTO, Mexico.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Capistrán</LastName><ForeName>Marcos A</ForeName><Initials>MA</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas, A.C., Jalisco S/N, Colonia Valenciana, 36240 Guanajuato, GTO, Mexico.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2015</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>06</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>Biomed Res Int</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101600173</NlmUniqueID></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D001499" MajorTopicYN="N">Bayes Theorem</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D004196" MajorTopicYN="N">Disease Outbreaks</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000706" MajorTopicYN="Y">statistics & numerical data</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007251" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza, Human</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D015233" MajorTopicYN="N">Models, Statistical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011156" MajorTopicYN="N">Population Density</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012495" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">San Francisco</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D013030" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Spain</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D013223" MajorTopicYN="N">Statistics as Topic</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2014</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>27</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2015</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>24</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2015</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>26</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2015</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>2</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2015</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>2</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2016</Year><Month>7</Month><Day>12</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">26425552</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1155/2015/751738</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC4575748</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2007;7:29</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17937786</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Stat Med. 2008 Sep 30;27(22):4455-68</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">18618414</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Clin Infect Dis. 2012 May;54(10):1427-36</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">22495079</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet Respir Med. 2014 Jun;2(6):445-54</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24717637</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>J R Soc Interface. 2007 Feb 22;4(12):155-66</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17254982</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2005 Dec;24(12):1049-52</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16371864</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>BMC Public Health. 2006;6:263</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17059615</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>J Infect Dis. 2006 Nov 1;194 Suppl 2:S82-91</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17163394</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Natl Vital Stat Rep. 2013 May 8;61(4):1-117</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24979972</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2007 May 1;104(18):7588-93</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17416677</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Vaccine. 1999 Jul 30;17 Suppl 1:S3-10</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">10471173</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 Jan;12(1):15-22</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16494711</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Mexique</li></country></list><tree><country name="Mexique"><noRegion><name sortKey="Garcia, Yury E" sort="Garcia, Yury E" uniqKey="Garcia Y" first="Yury E" last="García">Yury E. García</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Capistran, Marcos A" sort="Capistran, Marcos A" uniqKey="Capistran M" first="Marcos A" last="Capistrán">Marcos A. Capistrán</name><name sortKey="Christen, J Andres" sort="Christen, J Andres" uniqKey="Christen J" first="J Andrés" last="Christen">J Andrés Christen</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/GrippeEspagneV1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000194 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 000194 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= GrippeEspagneV1
|flux= Main
|étape= Exploration
|type= RBID
|clé= pubmed:26425552
|texte= A Bayesian Outbreak Detection Method for Influenza-Like Illness.
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:26425552" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a GrippeEspagneV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.37. |  |